Ark Invest, under Cathie Wood’s leadership, boosts optimistic Bitcoin price prediction to $2.4 million by 2030.

ARK Invest has revised its decade-end bitcoin (BTC) price target, now predicting a high of $2.4 million per coin after adjusting its assumptions regarding active supply, which excludes lost or long-held coins. The largest cryptocurrency by market value was recently trading around $94,000. This bullish projection, which is 60% higher than its January 2024 estimate, reflects a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from last December through the end of 2030.

The base case estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million, corresponding to a 53% CAGR, while the bear case projects a price of $500,000, equating to a 32% CAGR. David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led investment company, employed a model based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across several sectors. These sectors include institutional investment, bitcoin’s potential as “digital gold,” its use as a safe haven in emerging markets, and adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings, as well as on-chain financial services built on the bitcoin network.

In November of last year, Puell targeted a price range of $104,000-$124,000 by year-end. Bitcoin concluded December at $93,440 and subsequently reached a record high of $109,000 in January, before declining to lows around $74,500 earlier this month. The recent rally has been partly fueled by declining exchange balances, which have hit a six-year low, suggesting that more BTC is being moved into private wallets, indicative of long-term holding behavior. Data from Glassnode shows that exchange-held BTC has decreased from approximately 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million, reinforcing the increasingly bullish sentiment around the cryptocurrency.
Exchange Balance (Glassnode)