Bitcoin Price (BTC) Forecast: A $65K Threshold May Indicate the Start of the End for the Bear Market
Where’s the bottom for bitcoin (BTC)? While acknowledging it’s possible that level has already been reached, on-chain analyst James Check suggested that a definitive bottom may not be established until bitcoin experiences a true capitulation event. This could mean a decline to the $65,000 range, which Check referred to as the “true market mean,” representing the average cost basis for active investors. At this price point, according to Check, who discussed his insights on the TFTC podcast, the average investor may start to feel the effects of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held bitcoin for five years, might find themselves in a difficult position. Notably, this price level is closely aligned with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has an average cost basis around $67,500.
Where does capitulation take the market? While Check anticipates significant declines from the $65,000 level, he identifies strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range. These prices represent the launch of ETFs in 2024 as well as a $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin. A drop to as low as $40,000 appears unlikely, according to Check, unless a global recession unfolds. He also highlighted the extended period of “chopsolidation” in 2024, during which bitcoin traded for months within a broad range between $50K and $70K, as establishing a robust foundation of support.
