Bitcoin whales acquire 300% of newly mined BTC — Is $100K on the horizon?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) wealthiest traders and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about BTC, despite the presence of downside risks posed by unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, as indicated by the latest on-chain data.
Bitcoin whales absorbing 300% of new supply
Currently, Bitcoin whales and sharks are absorbing BTC at unprecedented rates—over 300% of yearly issuance—while exchanges are experiencing historic outflows, according to Glassnode. Remarkably, the yearly absorption rate of Bitcoin by exchanges has fallen below -200%, indicating a rising interest in self-custody or long-term investment strategies.
Bitcoin yearly absorption rates. Source: Glassnode
Moreover, larger holders (those with 100–1,000+ BTC) are accumulating more than three times the new issuance, representing the fastest accumulation rate among sharks and whales throughout Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin yearly absorption rates of whales and sharks. Source: Glassnode
This behavior signifies a structural shift as traditional finance increasingly embraces BTC, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year. Consequently, this has led to a reduced BTC supply on crypto exchanges and a stronger bullish sentiment among significant holders.
Most cohorts are buying the BTC price dip
Bitcoin whales possessing over 10,000 BTC continue to remain in a strong accumulation phase, with their Trend Accumulation Score around 0.7 as of April 18, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
This metric assesses the behavior of different cohorts, moving from distribution (0) to accumulation (1), suggesting confidence among Bitcoin’s largest holders. Conversely, the selling activity seen in smaller cohorts earlier this year seems to be diminishing. This includes the 10–100 BTC and the 1–100 BTC groups, whose scores have returned to a neutral level of approximately 0.5. Even the smallest cohort (<1 BTC), mainly comprised of retail participants, is no longer in a pronounced distribution phase, indicating a broader shift back toward accumulation across most Bitcoin groups. On-chain analyst Mignolet notes that the whale activity mirrors patterns seen prior to Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run. Bitcoin falling wedge breakout hints at $100K Bitcoin has broken out of a multi-month falling wedge pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal that could propel its price towards the $100,000 mark by May. A falling wedge occurs when price action contracts between two downward-sloping trendlines, often resolving with an upward breakout. Traders typically set price targets for the breakout by measuring the wedge's maximum height and adding this to the breakout point. BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView Utilizing this technical analysis approach sets Bitcoin's target to over $101,570. Meanwhile, BTC’s price is currently testing its 50-day (indicated by the red line) and 200-day (indicated by the blue line) exponential moving averages (EMAs) at approximately $85,300 as resistance. A failure to overcome these EMAs could lead to BTC’s price returning towards the wedge’s upper trendline near $80,000. "The 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, and the horizontal level at $88,804 poses a significant barrier to altering market structure and establishing a higher high," commented market analyst Scott Melker, emphasizing: "Encouraging – but not convincing – yet. Bulls need to follow through with strength." This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision entails risk, and readers should perform their own research when making choices.
