Saylor Predicts BlackRock’s IBIT Will Become the Largest ETF Globally Within a Decade
U.S. spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have recorded approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days, contributing to a rise in bitcoin’s price from around $85,000 to $94,000. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accounted for $1.3 billion of these inflows. Michael Saylor, Chairman of the largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, Strategy (MSTR), stated that “IBIT will be the biggest ETF in the world in ten years.” Saylor made these remarks during the Bitcoin Standard Corporation’s Investor Day.
To provide some context, IBIT currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion and saw over $1.5 billion in volume on Thursday. In comparison, the largest ETF by market capitalization, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), has a market cap of $593.5 billion, which is more than ten times that of IBIT.
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, recognized the potential for IBIT to become the largest ETF, although he emphasized the extraordinary nature of this scenario. “It’s possible, especially if IBIT starts attracting more cash than VOO, but that would require inflows significantly above $1 billion a day—more likely in the range of $3 to $4 billion daily to make progress. In short, extraordinary events would need to occur, but it’s possible,” Balchunas noted.
Meanwhile, the annualized basis trade for bitcoin ETFs—where investors go long on the ETF and short on the CME bitcoin futures—has risen to nearly 10%, up from 5% in early April. This increase, alongside a 2,000 BTC rise in futures open interest over the past week, indicates that some of the net ETF inflows might not be entirely directional bets but part of the basis trade.
