Oppenheimer: Coinbase (COIN) Revenue and Trading Forecast Affected by Tariff Disputes
Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) is currently facing a challenging outlook due to uncertainties stemming from President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff threats, which have impacted retail crypto activity, according to analysts at Oppenheimer. The investment bank has reduced its full-year trading volume forecast by 19%, bringing it down to $1.3 trillion, and lowered its first-quarter estimate to $380 billion, a 13% decrease from the previous quarter as risk appetite diminishes.
Despite generally more favorable signals from Washington—such as pro-crypto hints from the White House, Congress, and regulators—the analysts indicated that the market has not fully embraced this positive shift. “Since the election, we have seen the most pro-crypto President, Administration, Congress, regulators, executive orders, and SEC statements aimed at opening the U.S. to blockchain businesses to attract capital, projects, and talent,” noted analyst Owen Lau. “However, it’s unfortunate that Trump’s inconsistent tariff policies have fostered concerns about a bearish market, recession fears, and a slowdown in retail trading.”
Coinbase’s stock price has dropped by 30% this year, lagging behind bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which have decreased by 10% and 8%, respectively. While these figures reflect an improvement over the severe downturn in 2022—when COIN plummeted by 86%—they underscore the platform’s vulnerability to broader macroeconomic signals.
Oppenheimer has also revised its revenue and earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward, reducing its target share price to $279 from $388, citing that retail participation may remain muted amid ongoing policy uncertainties. The firm maintains an outperform rating, although the shares fell 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.
On a positive note, Coinbase captured 69% of the U.S. spot crypto trading volume in February, gaining an edge over competitors like Robinhood (HOOD). Sustaining this market share will depend on whether the industry can move past tariff-related unease and regain momentum.
Despite current challenges, Oppenheimer expresses optimism regarding Coinbase’s long-term prospects. “As a focused leader in crypto with opportunities in tokenization and payment use cases, we believe COIN can command a premium. We see COIN as a strong rebound stock if and when tariff tensions ease,” Lau remarked.
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