Los Angeles Port Projects 35% Drop in Shipping Volume Next Week Due to Impact of China Tariffs

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A container ship is shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 22, 2021. Mike Blake | Reuters. Shipments from China to the West Coast of the U.S. are expected to significantly decline next week as the impact of tariffs leads companies to reduce their import orders.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, mentioned in a recent interview that he anticipates incoming cargo volume to fall by more than a third compared to the same period in 2024. “According to our own port optimizer, which measures the loadings in Asia, we’ll be down just a little bit over 35% next week compared to last year. It’s a precipitous drop in volume, with several major American retailers ceasing shipments from China due to the tariffs,” Seroka stated.

Shipments from China constitute about 45% of the business for the Port of LA, although some transport companies are exploring options to collect goods from other locations in Southeast Asia to fill their ships, Seroka noted. “Realistically speaking, until a resolution can be reached with China, the volume coming out of there—except for a few commodities—will likely be very light at best,” Seroka added.

In addition to the declining volume of goods, Seroka expects about a quarter of the usual number of arriving ships to the port to be canceled in May. The announcement of increased tariffs on Chinese goods has intensified tensions, resulting in both the U.S. and China imposing significant levies on many goods exchanged between the two countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has characterized the situation as “unsustainable,” yet substantial negotiations have not yet materialized.

Data regarding shipments from China had already indicated a slowdown in trade volume to the U.S., raising concerns among economists. Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, recently outlined a scenario where reduced imports from China lead to layoffs in transportation and retail sectors in the U.S., empty shelves, and potential recession over the summer.

Seroka expressed that U.S. retailers have around five to seven weeks before the effects of the limited shipments start to become problematic, partly due to prior stockpiling ahead of tariff announcements. “I don’t foresee completely empty store shelves or online shortages. However, if you’re searching for a blue shirt, you might find many purple options and just one blue in an unavailable size. Hence, we may start to see less variety on those shelves due to the limited influx of goods resulting from the elevated costs. Additionally, for the remaining blue shirt, you may notice a price increase,” Seroka commented.

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