Stablecoins May Spark a ‘ChatGPT’ Breakthrough for Blockchain Acceptance, Projected to Reach $3.7T by 2030: Citi
Global bank Citi has predicted that 2025 could serve as a critical turning point for blockchain adoption, driven by stablecoins, similar to the pivotal year artificial intelligence experienced with the introduction of popular applications. “2025 has the potential to be blockchain’s significant moment,” the bank’s analysts stated in a report published earlier this week.
At the core of Citi’s projection are stablecoins, a class of cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. These tokens, spearheaded by Tether’s $145 billion USDT and Circle’s $60 billion USDC, have seen remarkable growth and are increasingly utilized for payments and remittances on a global scale.
Citi anticipates that this asset class could grow to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in its base case, up from the current $230 billion, providing that regulatory support and institutional integration are realized. In a more optimistic scenario, the market could swell to $3.7 trillion; however, existing structural challenges may keep the figure closer to $500 billion in a less favorable outlook.
A key driver of this growth is the supportive regulatory environment in the U.S., underscored by a recent presidential executive order that calls for the establishment of a federal framework for digital assets. The clarity surrounding stablecoin regulation may facilitate deeper integration of these tokens into the financial system, enabling faster payments, enhanced transparency, and more efficient asset settlement. “This could lead to broader adoption of blockchain-based currencies and stimulate various use cases across both private and public sectors,” the report notes.
Stablecoin issuers are expected to become significant holders of U.S. Treasuries in the future. The report predicts that around 90% of stablecoins in circulation by 2030 will remain tied to the U.S. dollar, affirming its dominance. This development could have profound implications for the global financial system, as dollar stablecoin issuers may emerge as some of the largest purchasers of U.S. Treasuries, particularly if regulations require backing tokens with low-risk, highly liquid assets such as government bonds. Citibank estimates that these issuers could hold $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt by the end of the decade, potentially outpacing all major foreign sovereign holders.
Additionally, central banks in Europe and Asia are likely to advance their own digital currencies, or CBDCs, the report indicated. However, the authors also highlighted several risks that could impede growth. Stablecoins experienced de-pegging nearly 1,900 times in 2023 alone, including over 600 instances involving major tokens, citing Moody’s data. In extreme cases, mass redemptions—such as those triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that affected USDC—can disrupt liquidity in the crypto market, lead to automated selloffs, and have repercussions across financial markets.
