The impact of the trade war on international business travel: 4 charts illustrate the effects.

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<p>Optimism in the global business travel sector has dropped by more than half this year, according to a report published by the Global Business Travel Association. Positive sentiment fell from 67% in November 2024 to 31% in April 2025, according to the report which surveyed over 900 business travel professionals regarding the effects of tariffs, tightened border policies, and other U.S. government policies announced this year.</p>

<p>More than one in four respondents in Canada, the United States, and Europe expressed feelings of "pessimistic" or "very pessimistic" about the industry's outlook this year. However, 40% of those surveyed indicated that they felt neither positive nor negative. "Since I have been in my role for four years, I haven't seen this high of a level of uncertainty," Suzanne Neufang, the association's CEO, stated.</p>

<p>The survey revealed that nearly 30% of business travel buyers anticipate their companies will reduce employee trips this year, while another 20% expressed uncertainty regarding their plans. "They're not even confident enough to assert whether things will be fine or not," Neufang noted. Additionally, around 27% of respondents expect business travel spending to decrease.</p>

<p><strong>Long-term concerns</strong></p>
<p>A third of business travel buyers indicated that their companies have either modified or are considering changes to policies regarding travel to or from the United States. Some 6% reported relocating events from the U.S. to other countries. "From an APAC perspective, and certainly from a European perspective, maybe even LATAM, there's an opportunity to be a source of where these meetings take place," Neufang remarked. "There are many avenues to turn this situation into a favorable outcome."</p>

<p>Business travel professionals voiced several concerns about the potential long-term impacts stemming from recent U.S. policies, primarily worries over rising business travel costs (54%) and challenges in processing visas (46%). Global airfares, however, have seen a slight decrease — about $17, or 2.2% year-to-date, according to travel data analysis.</p>

<p><strong>Not all 'doom and gloom'</strong></p>
<p>Despite these challenges, the global business travel market remains on track to exceed $1.6 trillion by the end of 2025, Neufang stated. This projection stands "if the last 100 days do not negatively impact the landscape." By 2028, the Global Business Travel Association anticipates that figure will surpass the $2 trillion mark. While business travel volumes have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, business travel spending fully recovered in 2024, partly due to inflation.</p>

<p>Neufang highlighted that the trade tensions initiated by the U.S. administration may result in an uptick in business trips. "During times of trade wars, business travel may actually increase for a period — as organizations seek new partners and markets," she explained. "You lose a customer, you need to find another one. So this outlook does not mean all doom and gloom for us."</p>

<p>However, she cautioned that if tariffs remain high, "There will definitely be an impact on U.S. travel... But I think travel to and from Europe, Asia, and Africa will likely continue to thrive." Leisure travel to the United States has declined in 2025, with international visitor spending projected to drop by 4.7% from 2024, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion loss for the U.S. travel industry in a year where revenues were initially expected to grow.</p>

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