Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Broaden Worldwide Access to Trustworthy Flood Predictions
Floods are the most prevalent natural disaster, causing approximately $50 billion in annual financial damages worldwide. The frequency of flood-related disasters has more than doubled since the year 2000, partly due to climate change. Almost 1.5 billion people, which accounts for 19% of the global population, face significant risks from severe flood events. Enhancing early warning systems to deliver accurate and timely information to these communities can save thousands of lives each year.
Motivated by the potential impact of effective flood forecasting on people’s lives worldwide, we launched our flood forecasting initiative in 2017. Over the years, we have advanced our research while simultaneously building a real-time operational flood forecasting system that sends alerts through various channels including Google Search, Maps, and Android notifications, as well as through our Flood Hub. However, to achieve global scalability, particularly in regions lacking accurate local data, further advancements in research were necessary.
In our study, “Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds,” published in Nature, we demonstrate how machine learning (ML) technologies can significantly enhance global flood forecasting compared to the current standards in areas where flood-related data is limited. These AI-driven technologies have increased the reliability of available global nowcasts from zero to five days on average, and improved forecast accuracy in regions across Africa and Asia to levels comparable to those in Europe. The evaluation of these models was conducted in collaboration with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).
These innovative technologies also empower Flood Hub to deliver real-time river forecasts up to seven days in advance, covering river reaches in over 80 countries. This vital information can be utilized by individuals, communities, governments, and international organizations to take proactive measures to protect vulnerable populations.
