How the failure of the AI moratorium could indicate a shift in political dynamics
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Granted, there’s an argument to be made that the moratorium’s defeat was highly contingent. Blackburn appears to have been motivated almost entirely by concerns about children’s online safety and the rights of country musicians to control their own likenesses; state lawmakers, meanwhile, were affronted by the federal government’s attempt to undermine legislation that they had already passed.
Even though powerful technology firms such as Andreessen Horowitz and OpenAI reportedly lobbied in favor of the moratorium, continuing to push for it might not have been worth it to the Trump administration and its allies—at least not at the expense of tax breaks and entitlement cuts. Baobao Zhang, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, suggests that the administration may have been willing to abandon the moratorium in order to advance other aspects of the bill by its self-imposed Independence Day deadline. Andreessen Horowitz did not respond to a request for comment. OpenAI noted its opposition to a state-by-state approach to AI regulation but did not respond to specific questions regarding the moratorium’s defeat.
It’s almost certainly the case that the moratorium’s breadth, as well as its decade-long duration, helped opponents rally a diverse coalition to their side. That breadth isn’t incidental—it’s related to the very nature of AI. Blackburn, who represents country musicians in Nashville, and Wiener, who represents software developers in San Francisco, have a shared interest in AI regulation precisely because such a powerful and general-purpose tool has the potential to affect many people’s well-being and livelihood. “There are real anxieties that are touching people of all classes,” Kak says. “It’s creating solidarities that maybe didn’t exist before.”
Faced with outspoken advocates, concerned constituents, and the constant buzz of AI discourse, politicians from both sides of the aisle are starting to argue for taking AI extremely seriously. One of the most prominent anti-moratorium voices was Marjorie Taylor Greene, who initially voted for the version of the bill containing the moratorium before admitting that she hadn’t read it thoroughly and committing to opposing the moratorium moving forward. “We have no idea what AI will be capable of in the next 10 years,” she posted last month.
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